Will Egypt Become Obama's Iran?

I know a lot of things about a lot of topics. Egypt isn’t one of them. It is considered to be one of the oldest nations on earth, with recognizable borders dating back to 5000 years BC. Wow!! It is a relatively poor nation, with little oil exporting capacity. There is a small, but growing middle class. 70% of the population is under the age of 35. It has a reported unemployment rate of 33%, although it is probably higher. 40% of the population makes less than $4.00/day.

Hosni Mubarak has been a friend to the United States in his handling of Egyptian relations with Israel, the Gaza Strip, and Islamists, which was bought for a price of tens of billions dollars in American aid over the years. As of late, Egypt has taken an extremely tough stance against Islamic terrorists, banning the Muslim Brotherhood, which is figuring prominently in the chaos festering in Cairo today.

A wave of discontent is spreading across the Mideast tonight; from Tunisia to Egypt to Yemen and Jordan, one of America’s staunchest allies in the region. It is clear that nobody, including the United States government, has a handle on what exactly is happening there, and who are the players. This is a dangerous situation with ramifications that can reach the United States to our core. President Obama cannot repeat the same mistakes of Jimmy Carter in Iran, and Dwight Eisenhower in Cuba.

There are three stages to any revolution. The first is the popular uprising demanding the voices of the people be heard. The second is the establishment of a democratic government of sorts. Unfortunately, stage two is usually the bugaboo because typically this is when these types of movements are the weakest. Stage three is the attack of the extremists, who are usually better organized than the good hearted but inept democrats trying to establish a democratic country.

The clearest example of this is the Russian Revolution, where there were 2 revolutions. The first was the overthrow of the Czar and the establishment of the Kerensky government in St. Petersburg. The Communists, in turn, overthrew the Kenensky democrats, establishing Communism in Russia. What followed was a bloody civil war…and the rest is history.

Add to that the American penchant for siding with stable dictators instead of messy democracies. Eisenhower refused to come to terms with Castro after the overthrow of Batista, forcing Castro to turn to Russia for aid and support. Carter slept through the Iranian Revolution. He allowed the Shah to fall, then sat on his hands. Things spun out of control as he let the Shah into the United States for medical treatment. The Shah, although installed under American auspices in the early 1950’s, was a bad dude. What was Carter thinking?

So now we have one of the most inexperienced Presidents ever elected to the office dealing with a rolling Mideast revolution rivaling the fall of communism in Eastern Europe. Which way will the dominos fall? Will they fall towards democracy and at least neutrality in the war against Islamic fundamentalism? Or will they fall the other way, into the hands of the extremists thus setting the stage for a World War?

Hyperbole? No. This is dangerous stuff. We should all be concerned that Egypt doesn’t become Obama’s Iran. Yes, President Obama, there really is a war on terrorism.